State Variable Trajectories

The Decay Curves

The universal shapes underneath every life. Invested or neglected.

Survival   $\omega_t$

$\omega_t$ transitions as $\omega_{t+1} = \omega_t \cdot (1 - \mu(h_t, r_t, p_t, t))$. It is not a fixed discount — it is a state variable shaped by the policy you run. An invested policy keeps $\omega_t$ higher for longer. A neglected policy accelerates the decay. In the canonical model, future joy is discounted by $\omega_t$ — it represents your odds of being alive to experience it. A unit of joy at 70 is worth less than the same unit at 40, not because joy matters less, but because the probability of reaching 70 is lower. That probability is not fixed. It is shaped by the policy you run.

Survival Probability $\omega_t$ — Invested vs. Neglected Policy

The Four Real-State Variables

Health, wealth, relationships, and purpose. Each shaped by the policy you run. Invested or neglected.

Health $h_t$
Invested Neglected

Both curves share a peak in the late 20s. Neglect compresses the peak and steepens the decline. The neglected curve hits the floor about a decade earlier.

Wealth $w_t$
Invested Neglected

Sigmoid accumulation in either case. Neglect cuts the ceiling roughly in half and accelerates draw-down after retirement.

Relationships $r_t$
Invested Neglected

The widest gap in the system. Neglect compounds the same way investment does, just in the wrong direction.

Purpose $p_t$
Cultivated Drifted

The mid-30s dip is real. Recovery is possible but not automatic. Drifted purpose flattens at low and stays there.

The Absolute Policy Explorer   $\sum_t C(S_t, X_t^\pi)$

Set the dimensional weights $\lambda_i$. The chart shows total contribution $C(S_t, X_t^\pi) = \omega_t \cdot J(S_t)$ summed over a lifetime under an invested and a neglected policy. The difference between the curves is what your policy choice is worth.

This is the absolute view. It assumes you experience each dimension in an absolute sense — raw level of health, raw level of wealth, raw level of relationships and purpose. You don't. You feel them relative to your expectations. The same $h_t$ feels different to a recovering patient than to a healthy person who expected to feel athletic. To see the relative view — how reality vs. expectation plays out over a lifetime — go to The Lives.

What Are You Maximizing?

$\lambda_h + \lambda_w + \lambda_r + \lambda_p = 1$   (auto-normalized)
$\lambda_h$ 0.25
$\lambda_w$ 0.25
$\lambda_r$ 0.25
$\lambda_p$ 0.25
Invested Policy
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total $\sum_t C(S_t, X_t^\pi)$
Neglected Policy
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total $\sum_t C(S_t, X_t^\pi)$